Nick reached out to Carlota to speak on the Web3 and Technological Revolutions session panel. While she was not able to attend, she drafted a thoughtful response worthy of the class’s attention.

Dear Nick,

Thank you so much for approaching me. I’m happy to hear that you’re inspired by my work, and that you are prepared to put in the effort to introduce your classmates to how studying the history of technological diffusion can help us understand the present. Getting people to think beyond the highs and lows of the present moment is the goal of all my work and it’s wonderful to know that others are also working to get that message out there.

Unfortunately, 4pm PST is midnight for me and I shall be asleep, as I have a very full schedule that week

One thing that I should flag up for your discussion: my work is about whole technological revolutions and not about single revolutionary technologies. There are many such technologies in each revolution, and they don’t necessarily behave in the same way as the complete revolution. Especially, a crash does not mean that the crashing technologies will then become dominant across the economy.

I understand the excitement around crypto and blockchain, but I am concerned that, regarding crypto currencies in particular; they may be the Tulipmania of our era - a boom that is totally disconnected from the real economy. That is not to say that the meta verse is not ‘real’ - of course it is. But I worry that the tons of liquidity poured into the financial sector by TARP and QE have created a casino where frankly often absurd NFTs can be bought for hundreds of thousands of dollars. And the collapse could be a Tsunami. And all while we are confronting enormous problems out in the material world: climate change, planetary limits, pandemics, serious illnesses caused by harmful technologies, lack of education, hunger, inequality, within and between countries and so on and so forth.

I’m worried that the young are being syphoned into one of two paths: either promoting an unrealistic (and impotent) ‘degrowth’ as a way to get rid of the super-rich and create a fairer world; or the metaverse, crypto, Web 3, space travel and other fascinating but equally impotent routes to the sort of social progress that we need now - which I see lies in the development of a truly sustainable digital green economy and the reimagining of a welfare state fit for the 21st century.

While I believe that (a reimagined) state has a very big part to play in enabling the social and business environment in which this can happen, I do also see the merit in decentralisation as part of the path to this future flourishing. However, I fear it’s not from the anarchist/libertarian viewpoint, which seems to drive much of the metaverse, and certainly not one in which high tech is an end in itself. Tech is the means of entrepreneurship, but the goal can be anything from just becoming very rich to making money while benefitting society. The latter, I believe, is what legitimises capitalism.

I’m sorry that I can’t join you, but I hope that this perspective is helpful for your discussion. Above all, I am against technological determinism – It is not the technology that defines what we do with it; it’s what we do with the new technologies that shapes the world, for good or ill.

All best,

Carlota